What would you do if you were given a very slim opportunity to win money, say $100, with very little effort? Or, you had a very small chance (1%) of getting your dream job but all you had to do was submit job search documents that you already have? As a CDP, you would probably go for both opportunities, but not all people do!
Harvard’s Prinsloo and co-researchers ran seven studies to investigate these types of questions. In the dream job scenario, likely the one most interesting to CDPS, in which participants had only to submit their existing resumes, 43% indicated they were unlikely to do so, 13% were on the fence, and 43% said they would likely apply. The six other studies tested variations of the “it will take almost no time or effort, you will not lose anything, and your chance of success is very small,” and each study found that significantly more people would decline to take a low-probability opportunity than a high-probability opportunity.
This “opportunity neglect” research is important for at least three reasons:
- It goes against some theorizing in behavioural economics.
- From a work search perspective, the findings point to a need to intervene re: clients’ beliefs about probability of success when looking for work (something CDPs already know!).
- It will hopefully lead to more research about clients’ beliefs about probability of success. Particularly, further research might indicate the “tipping point” probability at which clients are likely to think it’s worthwhile to apply. Is it 5%? 10%? 20%?
Implication: Some clients need help to (a) change their beliefs about probability of success, particularly when the probability is low, and/or (b) become motivated to act when the probability of success is low but the effort is also low.
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